Fragile Job Growth Amid Regional Divisions and Policy Uncertainty

The Facts: October’s Mixed Employment Picture

According to ADP’s October jobs report, the United States gained 42,000 jobs, marking the first increase since July and providing the only available jobs data during the federal government shutdown that suspended official Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This private payroll data, drawn from 26 million private-sector employees, reveals stark regional disparities: West Coast states gained 37,000 jobs between September and October, while the New York area (including New Jersey and Pennsylvania) lost 20,000 jobs and coastal states from Delaware to Florida lost 8,000 jobs.

The job increases were concentrated in trade and transportation sectors—including stores, wholesale, and shipping—which added 47,000 new positions for the month. Large businesses with more than 500 employees drove much of this growth, gaining 70,000 jobs, while small and medium-size businesses experienced overall job losses. The report also showed median annual pay growth remained stable at 4.5% for workers in the same jobs and 6.7% for those in new jobs, indicating balanced shifts in supply and demand according to ADP’s analysis.

Labor economist Guy Berger of the Burning Glass Institute noted that these industries added jobs despite uncertainty over tariffs, though he questioned whether the gains would be long-lasting or disappear with new rounds of high tariffs on consumer goods. Berger characterized the job market as facing “ping-pongy” headwinds where businesses constantly adjust to unpredictable news and supply chain challenges.

Opinion: This Precarious Recovery Demands Stable Economic Leadership

While any job growth provides hope for American workers and families, this October jobs report reveals a deeply concerning picture of fragile, uneven recovery that should alarm every citizen who values economic stability and nationwide prosperity. The regional disparities between West Coast gains and East Coast losses underscore how our economic recovery remains dangerously unbalanced, leaving entire regions of our country behind while others move forward.

The fact that job growth occurred despite tariff uncertainties—not because of sound policy—demonstrates the remarkable resilience of American businesses and workers, but they deserve better than having to navigate constant policy instability. Guy Berger’s characterization of “ping-pongy” headwinds perfectly captures the unacceptable environment where businesses must operate in constant uncertainty, never knowing what the next policy change might bring to their supply chains and workforce planning.

What deeply troubles me as someone committed to economic freedom and stability is that we’re celebrating what Berger himself noted would have been considered “quite weak” job growth in years past. The bar has been lowered so dramatically that we’re now applauding modest gains while ignoring the structural weaknesses and policy-induced uncertainties that make sustainable growth increasingly difficult.

The concentration of job growth in large corporations while small and medium businesses—the true backbone of American entrepreneurship—suffer losses should serve as a wake-up call about the health of our business ecosystem. True economic freedom requires creating conditions where businesses of all sizes can thrive, not just corporate giants.

We must demand economic policies that provide certainty, stability, and opportunity for all Americans across all regions, not this patchwork recovery that leaves too many communities behind. Our nation’s workers deserve better than precarious growth subject to the whims of trade policy volatility—they deserve sustainable prosperity built on the solid foundation of predictable, pro-growth policies that honor the economic freedoms our Constitution protects.