The Perilous Gamble: Trump's Gerrymandering and the 2026 Midterms

The Facts:

Political analyst Amy Walter, publisher of the Cook Political Report, asserts that President Donald Trump’s campaign to gerrymander congressional districts is unlikely to prevent a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections. Historical data shows that the party holding the White House typically loses an average of 27 House seats during midterms, with only two exceptions since World War II—under George W. Bush after the 2001 terrorist attacks and during Bill Clinton’s impeachment controversy in 1998. Currently, Trump’s approval rating sits at 43%, mirroring his 2018 numbers when Republicans lost 40 seats. Walter emphasizes that midterm elections serve as a referendum on the party in power, and Trump’s influence is expected to dramatically boost Democratic turnout. Despite potential GOP gains from redistricting in states like Kansas, Texas, and Florida, these are unlikely to offset broader anticipated losses. The article also highlights concerns about Democratic enthusiasm, intraparty friction, and the timing of a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act, which could affect district boundaries. Additionally, Walter and Wall Street Journal journalist Jerry Seib dismiss the possibility of Trump seeking a third term in 2028 as unconstitutional and unlikely.

Opinion:

This analysis reveals a disturbing pattern of undermining democratic norms for partisan gain, something that should alarm every citizen who values freedom and liberty. Trump’s gerrymandering efforts are not just a political strategy; they are an assault on the principle of fair representation that underpins our republic. When leaders prioritize power over people, they erode trust in our institutions and threaten the very fabric of our democracy. It is heartening to see experts like Amy Walter calling out these maneuvers, but it is equally disheartening that such tactics are even being considered. We must vehemently oppose any action that distorts electoral outcomes and silences voices, regardless of which party engages in it. The focus should be on strengthening our democratic processes, fostering bipartisanship, and ensuring that every vote counts—not on gaming the system for short-term advantage. Our Constitution and Bill of Rights deserve unwavering defense, and we must hold all leaders accountable to these foundational principles.