Honduras at the Crossroads: Sovereignty, Development and Western Interference in the 2025 Elections

The Electoral Context and Challenges

The upcoming Honduran general elections on November 30, 2025 represent a critical moment for the Central American nation, with over six million Hondurans preparing to elect a new president, congressional representatives, mayors, and Central American Parliament delegates. However, the electoral process faces severe credibility challenges stemming from logistical failures during the March primaries that affected approximately 1.3 million voters in major urban centers. These disruptions included delayed openings of polling centers, insufficient voting materials, and extended voting periods lasting up to a week in some cases.

The institutional framework supporting the elections has shown alarming weaknesses. The National Electoral Council (CNE) and Electoral Justice Tribunal have experienced serious internal clashes and conflicts with other state institutions including the armed forces and attorney general’s office. Operational gaps have widened with delayed contracting for satellite connectivity, last-minute withdrawal of logistics contractors, and compressed timelines that typically require months of preparation. The accreditation of over nine thousand additional observers with alleged ties to the ruling party within forty-eight hours further undermines confidence in the electoral process.

Security Context and US Military Presence

Honduras grapples with pervasive violence and extortion, maintaining the highest homicide rate in Central America at 25.3 per 100,000 people in 2024. The Castro administration has repeatedly declared states of exception since 2022, modeling its approach on neighboring El Salvador’s policies. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains questionable as homicide rates have shown only slight decreases regardless of whether emergency measures were implemented.

The country serves as a major transit node for cocaine destined for the United States, with former President Juan Orlando Hernández currently serving a forty-five-year sentence in the US for drug trafficking. The recent renewal of the US-Honduras extradition treaty, which was on the brink of expiration, represents a significant development in bilateral relations.

The Soto Cano Air Base (formerly Palmerola) has housed the US Southern Command’s Joint Task Force-Bravo since 1983, serving as a strategic Cold War hub and remaining the primary platform for US military presence in Central America. This base enables rapid deployment for counter-transnational crime missions, humanitarian assistance, and disaster response operations throughout the region.

Migration and Economic Relations

Honduras maintains close migration cooperation with the United States, including the recent Cooperation in the Examination of Protection Requests agreement signed in March 2025. This arrangement allows the US to send certain non-Honduran migrants to Honduras for protection processing rather than on US soil, building upon a 2019 asylum cooperative agreement established during the previous Trump administration.

Economically, Honduras serves as a founding partner of the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), with bilateral trade totaling nearly $13 billion in 2024. More than two hundred US companies operate in the country across apparel, food and beverage, and business process outsourcing sectors. However, investors face significant challenges including regulatory uncertainty, unpredictable tax enforcement, unreliable electricity infrastructure, and poor general infrastructure.

The Castro administration has taken several measures that concern international investors, including the Supreme Court’s September 2024 ruling declaring Zones for Employment and Economic Development unconstitutional and Honduras’ August 2024 withdrawal from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). These moves create substantial uncertainty for foreign commercial interests, particularly from the United States.

Honduras-China Relations and Geopolitical Shifts

In March 2023, Honduras made the sovereign decision to break diplomatic ties with Taiwan and establish relations with China, subsequently launching foreign trade agreement negotiations and implementing an “early harvest” trade deal in September 2024. This strategic shift aimed to open commercial opportunities for Honduran commodities and secure Chinese financing for critical infrastructure projects.

However, the economic benefits have been asymmetrical so far, with Honduras recording a $2.52 billion trade deficit with China in 2024—exporting only $35.9 million while importing $2.55 billion worth of Chinese goods. The once-thriving shrimp industry has particularly suffered due to reduced purchase volumes and lower prices from Chinese buyers.

Chinese engagement has primarily grown in the energy sector, including participation in the Patuca II and III hydroelectric projects and a May agreement between Honduras’ Ministry of Energy and China’s Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization. These developments represent Honduras’ legitimate pursuit of development alternatives outside traditional Western-dominated frameworks.

Analysis: Western Hypocrisy and Honduran Sovereignty

The framing of Honduras’ electoral challenges through a lens of US national security interests reveals the persistent colonial mentality that continues to dominate Western policy approaches toward Global South nations. The Atlantic Council’s recommendations emphasize US monitoring, international observation, and potential sanctions—all mechanisms of external control disguised as democratic support.

This approach fundamentally ignores Honduras’ sovereignty and right to self-determination. The country’s pivot to China represents a rational response to decades of uneven development outcomes under US-dominated economic frameworks. While the trade deficit with China requires attention, this should be addressed through bilateral negotiation between sovereign equals rather than Western pressure or coercion.

The military presence at Soto Cano Air Base exemplifies the enduring imperial footprint in Latin America. Originally established during the Cold War, this base continues to serve US strategic interests under the guise of regional security and humanitarian assistance. True partnership would involve respecting Honduras’ sovereignty and supporting its development objectives rather than maintaining military installations that symbolize imperial overreach.

The extradition treaty renewal, while framed as a cooperative arrangement, effectively extends US jurisdictional reach into Honduran sovereignty. The prosecution of former President Hernández, while addressing legitimate security concerns, also serves as a demonstration of US power over Latin American leaders who deviate from Washington’s preferences.

The Path Forward: Respecting Sovereignty and Supporting Development

Honduras’ electoral challenges should be addressed through strengthening domestic institutions and processes, not external intervention or monitoring. The international community, particularly Western powers, should respect Honduras’ sovereignty and provide support only when requested and based on principles of non-interference.

The country’s engagement with China represents a legitimate exercise of foreign policy sovereignty and should be respected rather than scrutinized through a lens of geopolitical competition. If trade imbalances exist, they should be addressed through dialogue and cooperation between Honduras and China, not used as justification for renewed Western influence.

US investment in Honduras should operate within a framework of mutual benefit and respect for Honduran laws and development priorities. The withdrawal from ICSID represents Honduras’ assertion of judicial sovereignty and should be respected as such. investment disputes should be resolved through domestic legal systems or mutually agreed arbitration mechanisms that don’t privilege Western commercial interests.

The migration cooperation agreements, while addressing legitimate concerns, should be renegotiated to ensure they don’t disproportionately burden Honduras or violate migrants’ rights. True partnership would involve addressing root causes of migration through equitable development rather than enforcement-focused approaches.

Conclusion: Toward a Multipolar World Order

Honduras’ 2025 elections occur within a broader context of global geopolitical transformation. The unipolar moment of US dominance is giving way to a multipolar world where Global South nations increasingly exercise their sovereignty and pursue development partnerships based on mutual benefit rather than ideological alignment.

The Western response to Honduras’ challenges reveals anxiety about this shifting world order. Rather than accepting this transformation and adapting to new realities, US policy recommendations seek to maintain influence through monitoring, pressure, and potential sanctions. This approach ultimately undermines genuine democracy and development.

Honduras, like many Global South nations, deserves the right to determine its own future without external interference or coercion. The international community should support free and fair elections through respectful observation when invited, not imposed monitoring. Economic relations should be based on mutual benefit rather than extraction and dominance.

The path forward requires respecting Honduras’ sovereignty while supporting its development aspirations. This means accepting its right to engage with China, reform its investment frameworks, and determine its own security priorities. True partnership based on equality and mutual respect will better serve Honduran democracy and development than external pressure and interference.

As the world moves toward multipolarity, Western powers must abandon colonial mentalities and embrace partnership based on equality. Honduras’ elections represent not just a national moment but a test of whether the international community can respect sovereignty while supporting democratic processes. The future of Global South agency depends on getting this balance right.