The Dangerous Illusion: How Temporary Economic Resilience Masks Long-Term Damage to Global Freedom

The OECD’s Surprising Assessment

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s latest economic outlook delivers what appears to be counterintuitive news: despite President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade wars and protectionist policies, the global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The Paris-based organization, which represents 38 member countries committed to democracy and market economies, has actually upgraded its forecasts for both global and U.S. economic growth in 2025. Specifically, the OECD now projects global growth of 3.2% this year, an improvement over its June prediction of 2.9%, though still below 2024’s 3.3% expansion. For the United States, the upgrade is even more pronounced—from 1.6% to 2.0% growth, though this remains significantly below 2024’s robust 2.8% performance.

This apparent economic durability comes despite widespread expectations that Trump’s protectionist measures—including sweeping tariffs on imports designed to wall off the American economy from global competition—would immediately slow growth and increase costs for consumers and businesses. Several factors have contributed to this temporary resilience: the actual tariffs implemented have been less severe than initially threatened, many companies strategically imported goods before the tariffs took effect, and massive global investments in artificial intelligence have provided an unexpected economic boost across multiple sectors.

Global Economic Landscape and Key Players

The OECD’s assessment reveals a complex global economic picture beyond the United States. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to maintain 5% growth, matching its 2024 performance. The eurozone, comprising 20 countries sharing the common currency, shows modest improvement with projected growth of 1.3% in 2025 compared to 2024’s 0.8%—still lackluster but moving in the right direction. Most strikingly, India has surpassed China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with expected growth of 6.7% this year, up from 6.5% in 2024.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann struck a cautiously optimistic but fundamentally concerned tone in his commentary accompanying these forecasts. While acknowledging the economy’s resilience “despite concerns about a sharper slowdown in the wake of higher trade barriers and significant policy uncertainty,” Cormann delivered a crucial warning: “We expect higher tariffs to gradually feed through to higher prices, reducing growth in household consumption and business investment.” This statement underscores the fundamental reality that protectionist policies inevitably create economic drag, even if the effects are delayed.

The False Comfort of Temporary Resilience

The apparent short-term resilience of the global economy in the face of protectionist policies represents a dangerous illusion that threatens to undermine decades of progress toward economic freedom and international cooperation. While the numbers might suggest that trade wars are manageable or even inconsequential, this perspective fundamentally misunderstands how economic systems function over time. The delayed impact of trade barriers is not evidence of their harmlessness but rather testimony to the complex, interconnected nature of modern global supply chains and financial systems.

What concerns me deeply as a champion of democratic values and economic freedom is how this temporary stability might be weaponized to justify further erosion of the international trading system. Protectionism represents nothing less than an assault on the principles of free markets, choice, and competition that have driven unprecedented global prosperity since the end of World War II. The very idea that nations can wall themselves off from economic interdependence while maintaining growth and innovation is a dangerous fantasy that historically has led to conflict, poverty, and diminished human freedom.

The Fundamental Principles Under Threat

At stake in this debate are core principles that have underpinned the most prosperous period in human history. Free trade is not merely an economic theory—it represents a commitment to openness, cooperation, and mutual benefit among nations. The gradual implementation of protectionist measures represents a retreat from these principles toward a worldview based on suspicion, zero-sum thinking, and national isolation. This philosophical shift carries implications far beyond economics, potentially undermining the very foundations of international cooperation on security, environmental protection, and human rights.

The temporary mitigation of trade war impacts through artificial intelligence investments and strategic corporate behavior should not obscure the fundamental reality: protectionism always extracts a price. That price will be paid by American consumers through higher costs, by American businesses through reduced competitiveness, and by the global community through diminished trust and cooperation. The OECD’s warning about gradually increasing prices and reduced consumption and investment represents not just an economic prediction but a moral indictment of policies that prioritize political posturing over people’s prosperity.

The Human Cost of Economic Isolationism

Behind the abstract numbers and growth percentages lie real human consequences that should concern every defender of freedom and dignity. Protectionist policies inevitably hurt the most vulnerable members of society through higher prices for essential goods, reduced employment opportunities in export-dependent industries, and diminished economic mobility. The idea that we can build prosperity by walling ourselves off from the world represents a profound failure of imagination and compassion—a retreat from the challenging but necessary work of building a global community based on mutual respect and shared benefit.

Furthermore, the undermining of international economic institutions like the World Trade Organization and the systematic rejection of multilateral trade agreements represents a dangerous fragmentation of the global order that has maintained relative peace and prosperity for decades. While these institutions are imperfect and in need of reform, their systematic dismantlement in favor of unilateral action threatens to return us to an era of economic nationalism that historically has preceded conflict and human suffering.

The Path Forward: Recommitting to Freedom and Cooperation

In this concerning context, defenders of freedom, democracy, and human dignity must raise our voices with clarity and conviction. We must reject the false comfort of temporary economic numbers and focus instead on defending the principles that have created unprecedented global prosperity. This requires courageous leadership that explains to citizens why open markets, international cooperation, and rules-based systems ultimately serve their interests better than protectionism and isolationism.

We must also work to reform and improve international economic institutions to address legitimate concerns about unfair trade practices, workers’ rights, and environmental protection without abandoning the fundamental commitment to openness and cooperation. The answer to globalization’s challenges is not retreat but better, fairer, more inclusive globalization that spreads benefits more widely and protects the most vulnerable.

The OECD’s report should serve as a warning, not a reassurance. The fact that the global economy has absorbed initial protectionist shocks without immediate collapse speaks to its resilience, not to the wisdom of protectionist policies. As Secretary-General Cormann warned, the negative effects will materialize gradually but inevitably. Those who value freedom, prosperity, and international cooperation must make the case now—before the damage becomes undeniable—for returning to the principles that have served humanity so well. Our economic future and the cause of human freedom depend on it.