California's Child Care Conundrum: How Universal TK Expansion Threatens the Very System It Aims to Improve

The Promise of Universal Preschool

Governor Gavin Newsom’s ambitious plan to provide universal preschool access in California represents one of the most significant educational reforms in recent state history. With nearly tripled funding for subsidized child care and early childhood programs—from over $5 billion in 2020 to more than $14 billion this year—the administration has made substantial investments in early education. The cornerstone of this effort is transitional kindergarten (TK), a free public pre-kindergarten grade now available to all 4-year-olds regardless of family income.

The expansion, which Newsom described as “the most significant expansion of child care in America” during his January State of the State address, has indeed provided relief to thousands of families. Parents like Melissa Chen from San Jose report saving thousands of dollars monthly while seeing their children thrive in structured educational environments. For many working families, TK has become a financial lifeline, eliminating what would have been $9,000 to $24,000 in annual child care costs for their 4-year-olds.

The Unintended Consequences

However, this well-intentioned policy has created a devastating ripple effect throughout California’s child care ecosystem. Private preschool providers like Frisha Moore’s Elk Grove center are experiencing catastrophic enrollment declines as families opt for free TK programs. Moore’s preschool, which once had waitlists, now operates at about 40% capacity, with dozens of families choosing public TK instead. She hasn’t broken even in months and contemplates closure “every single day.”

The financial model for private child care centers depends critically on enrolling 4-year-olds, who require less intensive care and therefore help subsidize the higher costs of infant and toddler care. When these older children move to public TK programs, private centers lose their financial foundation. The consequences are dire: in Los Angeles County alone, 167 preschools closed between 2020 and 2024, with researchers attributing the decline partly to TK expansion.

The Economic Reality of Child Care

Private child care providers operate within an incredibly challenging financial landscape. They face strict regulations, thin profit margins, and staffing challenges—all while providing essential services that enable parents to work. The departure of 4-year-olds from these centers creates an unsustainable business model, particularly for providers serving infants and toddlers who require more staff attention and higher costs.

Shilpa Panech’s experience exemplifies this crisis. After 13 years operating Panache Enfants in San Ramon, she watched her 4-year-old enrollment dwindle from 24 children to just one. Despite supporting the concept of universal preschool, she found the rapid implementation devastating. “Nobody gets into this industry necessarily to make money,” Panech noted tearfully. “We’re in it because we love the kids and their families.” Her closure eliminated 72 licensed child care spots from Contra Costa County.

The Policy Implementation Challenge

California’s approach differs significantly from other states that have implemented universal preschool. Colorado, Vermont, and Georgia allow families to choose between public schools and private centers for their free preschool slots. California, by contrast, expanded only transitional kindergarten within public schools as the free option, creating direct competition with private providers rather than partnership.

Jessica Holmes, education program budget manager at the Department of Finance, defends this approach as necessary to guarantee spots statewide, even in areas with scarce private providers. “One structure that is consistent across the state is the school system,” she explained. “Even in the most rural areas, we have schools.”

However, this centralized approach fails to account for the diverse needs of working families. Many require care beyond TK’s 3.5-hour school day or need providers with flexible hours that traditional public schools cannot offer. School districts aren’t required to place children at their nearest elementary school if space is limited, creating transportation challenges for some families.

The Human Cost of Policy Failure

What makes this situation particularly heartbreaking is the human toll on both providers and families. Educators like Frisha Moore have invested not just money but their hearts into creating nurturing environments for children. Moore started her center in 2017 when her own children were young, with her whole family contributing to build the facility. “This is like my second child,” she lamented, expressing the emotional connection providers feel toward their centers.

For families like Brittany Jackson’s, private preschools offer something public TK cannot: alignment with parenting philosophies and flexible scheduling. Jackson, a single mother, chooses to keep her son at Moore’s center despite qualifying for TK because she values the play-based approach and wants to avoid after-school care complications. Her ability to make this choice depends entirely on whether providers like Moore can survive financially.

The Systemic Vulnerabilities Exposed

This crisis reveals fundamental weaknesses in how America supports early childhood education. The United States has long lagged behind other developed nations in public funding for child care, creating a fragile patchwork system that collapses when any single element is disrupted. Bruce Fuller, the UC Berkeley sociologist who authored the LA County report, summarized the paradox perfectly: “He’s done a hell of a lot to allow more kids to get cheaper early childhood care. He’s also expanded a lot of pieces to the puzzle, without solving the puzzle.”

The situation exemplifies how well-intentioned policies can undermine the very systems they aim to improve when implemented without sufficient consideration for existing infrastructure. By focusing exclusively on expanding public school options without strengthening private providers, California risks creating child care deserts—areas with insufficient licensed care options, particularly for infants and toddlers.

The Path Forward

Patricia Lozano of Early Edge California acknowledges that the state must do more to ensure abundant options for all parents and keep private centers open. One promising approach involves requiring school districts to partner with private centers to offer child care outside TK hours, a model some districts already use successfully. Advocates also continue pushing Newsom to honor his commitment to fund more vouchers for low-income families.

The fundamental challenge remains balancing accessibility with sustainability. While universal TK provides immediate relief to families with 4-year-olds, its implementation threatens the broader child care ecosystem that serves children from infancy through preschool. A more holistic approach would recognize that quality child care requires both public investment and robust private providers working in partnership.

The Broader Implications for Democratic Governance

This child care crisis speaks to larger questions about how democracies implement social policy. The tension between bold, universal programs and existing community infrastructure represents a recurring challenge in governance. True leadership requires not just visionary goals but careful implementation that strengthens rather than undermines community institutions.

The situation calls for policy-making that respects economic realities while pursuing social goods. It demands solutions that empower parents with meaningful choices rather than forcing them into one-size-fits-all options. Most importantly, it requires recognizing that quality child care is essential infrastructure—as vital to a functioning economy as roads and bridges.

As California moves forward, the state must course-correct to preserve the diverse ecosystem of child care providers that families depend on. The future of working parents, the well-being of young children, and the stability of communities across California depend on getting this balance right. The promise of universal preschool can only be fully realized when it strengthens rather than destabilizes the broader child care system upon which families rely.