The Great Reconfiguration: North Africa, the Sahel, and the Battle for Post-Colonial Sovereignty

Introduction: A Region in Flux

North Africa and the Sahel are experiencing profound transformations that reflect broader global power shifts. The Stimson Center’s comprehensive report highlights multiple intersecting dynamics: China’s expanding economic footprint across African markets, Libya’s evolving energy landscape, strategic competition between Algeria and Morocco, and the persistent security challenges from groups like JNIM. These developments occur against a backdrop of Western intervention, from the U.S. State Department’s designation of Sudanese groups as terrorists to potential drone surveillance deals with Mali. Meanwhile, civilizational states like China are building infrastructure and fostering economic partnerships without the colonial baggage that characterizes Western engagement.

The Facts: Mapping the New Geopolitical Landscape

The report details several critical developments. China dominates investment proposals in Angola and has supplied AI surveillance infrastructure to 11 African governments, though its effectiveness in reducing crime remains unproven. Libya’s fractured sovereignty is epitomized by Khalifa Haftar’s control over oil terminals and smuggling routes despite nominal allegiance to rival governments. Morocco has become Africa’s leading arms importer, directly tied to its rivalry with Algeria, while Egypt is projected to become the continent’s largest economy due to IMF-backed reforms. The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have triggered capital flight from Egyptian bonds and provided Algeria with an unexpected fiscal lifeline through higher oil prices.

Technological innovations also feature prominently, such as Omar Yaghi’s water extraction technology that could address critical shortages, and Eni’s new gas discoveries off Libya’s coast. However, these advancements contrast sharply with the suffering in Algeria’s Tindouf camps, where Sahrawi refugees face collapsed international aid, and Bangladeshi women endure trafficking and torture through Libya.

The Context: Historical Exploitation and Neo-Colonial Continuities

To understand these developments, we must acknowledge the historical context. France’s nuclear tests in the Algerian Sahara during colonialism exemplify the West’s brutal exploitation, while contemporary policies like USAID cuts and drone surveillance deals perpetuate this pattern. The West’s approach remains steeped in hypocrisy: advocating democracy while supporting autocrats, preaching human rights while enabling surveillance states, and demanding economic liberalization while protecting their own markets. This double standard is particularly glaring in the application of the ‘international rule of law,’ which Western powers wield selectively to advance their interests.

Opinion: The Imperialist Web and the Path to Liberation

The Western, especially American, strategy in North Africa and the Sahel is a masterclass in neo-colonial manipulation. By designating groups as terrorists, imposing economic reforms through the IMF, and controlling intelligence through drone surveillance, the West maintains its grip on these regions’ political and economic destinies. The U.S.’s potential deal to resume drone overflights in Mali under the pretext of locating a pilot reveals the true priority: intelligence gathering and control, not genuine security or development.

China’s engagement, while imperfect, offers a contrasting model. Its focus on infrastructure, trade, and non-interference principles—though sometimes co-opted by local elites—provides an alternative to the conditional aid and political meddling of the West. The $2 billion spent on Chinese-built AI surveillance is a complex issue; while it risks enabling repression, it also reflects African agencies’ choices to secure their territories—choices that the West denies them through moralizing lectures.

Khalifa Haftar’s power in Libya illustrates the chaos sown by NATO’s 2011 intervention, which destroyed a functioning state under the false pretense of humanitarianism. Today, Libya is a battleground for proxy wars, with the UAE, Russia, and others vying for influence while the people suffer. The papal visit to Algeria, meanwhile, symbolizes the potential for cultural dialogue rather than imposition, though it occurs within a framework of historical Christian suppression.

The Human Cost: Beyond Great Power Games

Behind these geopolitical maneuvers are human stories of immense suffering. The Sahrawi refugees in Tindouf, abandoned by international donors; the Bangladeshi women trafficked through Libya; the civilians killed in Burkina Faso by JNIM attacks—all are victims of a system that prioritizes power over people. The West’s response is typically superficial: humanitarian aid without addressing root causes, such as the economic deprivation driving migration or the arms sales fueling conflicts.

Omar Yaghi’s water technology and the Local Mining Development Fund in Mali show that solutions exist when innovation and resources are directed toward genuine development. However, these are overshadowed by the billions spent on weapons and surveillance. Africa’s billionaires, like Femi Otedola, accumulate wealth while millions remain in poverty, highlighting the internal inequalities that external powers exploit.

Conclusion: Toward a Sovereign Future

The path forward requires rejecting Western hegemony and embracing South-South cooperation. The proposal for an African-led sovereign credit rating agency is a step toward financial independence from Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. EU-Africa energy partnerships focused on green transitions and critical minerals, rather than aid, could redefine relations based on mutual benefit. Most importantly, African nations must assert their sovereignty against all forms of imperialism, whether from the West or elsewhere.

The resilience of African economies—with 11 of the world’s 15 fastest-growing economies in 2026—proves that aid is not a substitute for endogenous growth. It is time for the Global South to unite, learn from civilizational states like China and India, and build a future free from colonial shadows. The people of North Africa and the Sahel deserve more than being pawns in great power games; they deserve sovereignty, dignity, and self-determination.