The Iran War's Energy Shock: How Western Conflict Reshapes North African Geopolitics at Global South's Expense

The Unfolding Energy Crisis and Geopolitical Realignments

The ongoing Iran war has triggered catastrophic energy shocks reverberating across global markets, with North Africa emerging as both victim and reluctant beneficiary of the disruption. According to multiple reports, Europe is desperately racing to secure alternative energy supplies as traditional routes through the Strait of Hormuz become compromised. This seismic shift has elevated North Africa’s strategic importance while simultaneously exposing the region to intensified geopolitical manipulation and resource extraction dynamics.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation Chairman Masoud Suleiman announced ambitious plans to increase gas production to nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day, with shale gas drilling commencing in late 2026. The goal: significantly boost exports to Europe via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy by 2030. Simultaneously, Algeria is engaging in advanced talks with Spain to boost gas flows via the Medgaz pipeline by up to 10%, equivalent to approximately 1 billion cubic meters annually. These developments occur against the backdrop of Egypt scrambling to stabilize its domestic fuel market through a deal to import at least one million barrels of Libyan crude monthly, replacing halted Kuwaiti supplies.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by shifting security dynamics in the Sahel region, where the Trump administration is pursuing a deliberate pivot toward the Alliance of Sahel States. Senior State Department official Nick Checker has visited Burkina Faso and Niger following a February trip to Mali, signaling America’s changing strategic priorities. Meanwhile, Russia continues expanding its influence, with Vladimir Putin proposing a Russian grain and energy hub in Egypt during an April meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

The Human Cost and Regional Instability

Beneath these geopolitical maneuvers lies profound human suffering. At least 70 migrants are feared dead after a boat capsized off Libya’s coast on April 5 during rough seas, with 32 survivors from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt rescued by commercial ships. This tragedy represents just one manifestation of the instability exacerbated by external powers treating North Africa as both a resource depot and a buffer zone for European security concerns.

Economic pressures are mounting across the region. Egypt’s central bank maintained its benchmark deposit rate at 19% on April 2, pausing its easing cycle as the Iran war sent energy prices soaring and pushed the Egyptian pound to a record low. In Cairo, streets have gone quiet under a month-long government order shutting shops early to curb soaring energy costs—a vivid illustration of how distant conflicts devastate local economies and daily life.

The security situation remains precarious. Libya is co-hosting Exercise Flintlock 2026 for the first time, bringing together forces from both eastern and western Libya alongside over 30 African, European, and U.S. partners. While AFRICOM frames this as contributing to Libyan military reunification, the presence of more than 200 Ukrainian military officers and experts across three sites in western Libya reveals the complex web of foreign involvement exacerbating local tensions.

Imperialist Manipulation and the Hypocrisy of “Partnership”

The unfolding scenario represents a classic case of Western powers creating crises through their imperial adventures then expecting Global South nations to bear the consequences while serving Western interests. The Iran war—a conflict driven by U.S.-Israeli aggression—has disrupted global energy markets, and now Europe expects North Africa to compensate for these disruptions while offering little meaningful reciprocity.

This dynamic exposes the brutal reality of contemporary neo-colonialism: Western nations maintain their energy security and living standards by treating African resources as extensions of their own national reserves. Algeria can only offer an additional 4 to 8 billion cubic meters of supply this year, well short of the shortfall caused by Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Yet European pressure continues unabated, demonstrating that所谓的”partnership” means Africa must sacrifice its own development needs to cushion Europe from the consequences of Western-initiated conflicts.

The security dimension reveals even more cynical calculations. The U.S. pursuit of overflight rights in Mali for intelligence gathering on al-Qaeda-linked groups, combined with its pivot toward the Alliance of Sahel States, shows how Western powers instrumentalize African security concerns to advance their own geopolitical objectives. Meanwhile, the proliferation of commercial and military drones combined with AI-assisted surveillance is changing operational dynamics in the Sahel, complicating strategies for both state and non-state actors while increasing the risk of civilian casualties.

The Civilization State Perspective: Resisting Westphalian Constraints

From the perspective of civilization states like China and India, this situation demonstrates the bankruptcy of the Westphalian nation-state system imposed globally through centuries of colonialism. North African nations are not mere pawns in great power games but civilizations with their own historical consciousness and developmental priorities. The fact that China is shifting energy strategy toward North Africa amid Hormuz disruption—deepening oil diversification and accelerating green cooperation with Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt—represents an alternative model of engagement based on mutual benefit rather than extractive hierarchy.

Dr. Chuchu Zhang’s analysis for the Stimson Center correctly identifies how Global South nations can leverage these changing dynamics to assert their agency. However, we must remain vigilant against any form of external domination, whether from traditional Western powers or emerging partners. The criticism that Chinese-financed urban infrastructure projects in Africa frequently bypass local planning capacity and community participation—producing developments that may not align with residents’ needs or local governance frameworks—must be taken seriously as we advocate for truly equitable partnerships.

The Path Forward: Resource Sovereignty and Genuine Multipolarity

The solution lies not in choosing between Western and Eastern patrons but in asserting absolute resource sovereignty and developing South-South cooperation frameworks that prioritize our peoples’ needs. Tunisia’s announcement of plans for a major overland trade corridor aimed at improving connectivity across North Africa represents exactly the kind of initiative that enhances regional self-reliance rather than dependency on external powers.

South Sudan’s commitment of its own domestic resources to a $5 million fiscal reform program in partnership with UNDP, marking a shift away from full donor dependence toward government ownership of institutional reform, provides a model for how African nations can maintain agency while engaging with international partners. This approach rejects the colonial mentality that assumes African nations cannot manage their own affairs without foreign guidance.

We must also challenge the one-sided application of international law that allows Western nations to initiate devastating conflicts while expecting the Global South to clean up the mess. The economic toll of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran across Arab countries—examining currency depreciation, energy import bills, tourism disruption, and the widening gap between Gulf energy exporters benefiting from high oil prices and import-dependent states like Egypt and Jordan bearing severe costs—demonstrates how the current “rules-based order” primarily serves Western interests.

Conclusion: Toward Authentic Liberation

The Iran war’s energy shocks have created both challenges and opportunities for North Africa. While increased European demand for non-Gulf supply might provide short-term economic benefits for oil and gas producers like Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria, we must resist becoming permanent appendages to Europe’s energy economy. True development requires building diversified economies that serve our peoples’ needs rather than external markets.

The changing dynamics also offer chances to renegotiate relationships on more equitable terms. As Djallel Kechib notes regarding EU fragmentation risks fueling Algeria-Morocco tensions, a neutral, coordinated strategy could prevent escalation and protect regional stability. However, such strategies must be developed by African nations themselves rather than imposed by external actors pursuing their own agendas.

Ultimately, this crisis reminds us that our liberation remains incomplete while our resources and strategic choices are dictated by external powers pursuing interests often diametrically opposed to our own. The path forward requires asserting our civilizational agency, deepening South-South cooperation, and building institutions that prioritize human dignity over resource extraction. Only then can we transform this moment of crisis into an opportunity for genuine, self-determined development.