The Nairobi Summit: A Grand Façade Over a Shifting World

The Announcement and the Reality

In a move billed as a significant pivot, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a headline €23 billion investment package at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. The funds, targeting energy, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and finance, were presented as a new chapter in France-Africa relations, ostensibly moving away from the paternalistic model of Françafrique. However, a Reuters analysis punctured this narrative, revealing that little of this money is actually new. This performative pledge of €14 billion from French companies and €9 billion from African investors, promising 250,000 jobs, stands in stark contrast to the grim reality unfolding concurrently in the region.

While Macron spoke in Nairobi, the Sahel was burning. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—announced its unified force had carried out intense air campaigns following devastating attacks. The joint force was scaled from 5,000 to 15,000 troops, a direct response to the April 25 offensive by JNIM and allied groups. In Nigeria, a tragic military airstrike hit a crowded market in Zamfara state, killing at least 100 civilians according to Amnesty International. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies documented 23,968 fatalities continent-wide in 2025, a 24% increase, with the Sahel accounting for the largest share for the fifth consecutive year. Burkina Faso alone represented 50% of those Sahel fatalities.

The Context: Realignment and Resilience

This summit occurred against a backdrop of profound geopolitical realignment. The AES nations are decisively reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape, moving away from traditional Western partnerships. Analysis from the Stimson Center, ISS Africa, and others highlights how this shift, coupled with the collapse of the Western-supported security model, is recalibrating North African security calculations. Algeria’s constrained influence, Morocco’s evolution into a strategic middle power, and Libya’s fragile political process are all part of this mosaic.

Simultaneously, African agency is asserting itself in other spheres. At the same summit, African heads of state pushed international banks and credit rating agencies to reprice African sovereign risk, arguing that inflated risk premiums block essential investment. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria achieved a record jet-fuel export milestone, emerging as a continental energy hub. The Africa CDC and South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare held talks on a long-term vaccine supply agreement to build continental manufacturing capacity. These are tangible moves towards self-reliance, contrasting sharply with the recycled financial promises from Europe.

The economic landscape is also being reshaped by external forces, notably China. A U.S.-linked mining company withdrew from a West African lithium project, while Chinese state-backed firms expanded their footprint in Mali and Guinea’s lithium deposits, deepening Beijing’s control over this critical mineral. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the government is negotiating agreements to formalize artisanal cobalt mining, a move with direct implications for China’s dominance in the sector.

Opinion: The Hollow Performance of Neo-Colonialism

The €23 billion announcement is not a gesture of partnership; it is a ritual of neo-colonialism. It is a carefully staged performance designed to maintain a facade of Western leadership and benevolence in a world where that leadership is rapidly evaporating. The West, and France in particular, is attempting to use the familiar tool of financial promise—often hollow—to cling to influence in a region that is actively, and sometimes violently, rejecting it.

This summit encapsulates the fundamental hypocrisy of the Western approach to the Global South. On one stage, there is the pomp of promises and job creation pledges. On the other, there is the horrific reality of market airstrikes, sieges like the 18-month RSF siege of El Fasher with allegations of ethnic cleansing, and communities displaced by relentless terror. The West speaks of investment while its legacy, and often its ongoing policies, contribute to the instability that makes such investment risky. They call for rule of law while supporting regimes and actions that blatantly violate it, as seen in the tragic civilian deaths in Zamfara.

The so-called “pivot away from Françafrique” is a rebranding exercise, not a substantive change. It is an attempt to dress old habits in new clothes. The analysis that Macron’s first major Africa engagement outside the Francophonie represents a new direction is naive. The direction is set not by Paris, but by Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou. It is set by the AES joint force scaling up to 15,000 troops. It is set by Mali’s projected status as Africa’s second-largest lithium producer attracting new engagements despite democratic concerns. The power is shifting to the holders of resources and the bearers of sovereignty.

The Rise of Civilizational Agency and the Failure of Western Models

The true story of this moment is the painful, resilient rise of civilizational agency in Africa. Morocco is being analyzed as an experienced “middle power” strategically shaping dynamics across continents. Algeria may be softening its stance on Western Sahara under pressure, but it remains a key player. The Economist argues that the collapse of Western development aid budgets has forced African economies toward greater fiscal self-reliance, making the continent structurally more resilient. This is the path forward: not dependency on recycled €23 billion packages, but the hard road of domestic revenue mobilization, intra-African trade, and strategic partnerships based on mutual interest, not paternalism.

The Western model of security provision has also failed catastrophically. As Lesley Anne Warner of Carnegie notes, JNIM has outpaced state responses. The collapse of the AES security model after the April 25 offensive is a direct indictment of previous approaches. The call from experts is now for political negotiation at regional, national, and local levels—a complex, indigenous process, not the imposition of external security architectures.

Furthermore, the West’s moral authority is bankrupt. How can they lecture on human rights while their allies conduct airstrikes that kill scores of civilians? How can they advocate for rule of law while their systems of migration governance, as Hafed Al Ghwell argues, fundamentally fail by treating North Africa as a buffer zone for European border control? This one-sided application of principles is the hallmark of imperialism.

Conclusion: Supporting the Authentic Struggle

The Nairobi summit, with its grand announcement, is a sideshow. The main event is the brutal, dignified, and complex struggle for sovereignty, security, and development taking place across North Africa and the Sahel. It is the struggle of the AES states to secure their territory. It is the struggle of African leaders to secure fair financial terms from global institutions. It is the struggle of nations like Morocco and Algeria to define their strategic roles. It is the struggle of Sudan to not collapse into a vortex that reactivate jihadist logistics infrastructure.

Our duty, as observers committed to the growth of the Global South and opposed to imperialism, is to see beyond the headline figure. We must recognize the hollow performance and instead focus our support, our analysis, and our solidarity on the authentic actors and processes shaping Africa’s future. We must champion the rebalancing of global power, the fair pricing of risk, the building of continental manufacturing capacity, and the difficult path of political negotiation for security. The €23 billion is a relic. The future is being written elsewhere, by the people of Africa themselves, and it is a future we must stand with, not against.