The California Primary: Setting the Stage for a November Battle for the State's Soul
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- 3 min read
The Facts: The Field is Set for November
The recent California primary election has, as the state’s unique “top-two” system dictates, finalized the ballot for the November general election. In contests for every major statewide office, from Governor down to the obscure but powerful Board of Equalization, the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party—have advanced. This process is not merely about succession; it is a foundational moment that determines the contenders who will shape California’s policy on justice, education, finance, and elections for years to come.
In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta will face Republican Michael Gates. Bonta, alongside his predecessor Xavier Becerra, was noted for utilizing the office to challenge the federal Trump administration, setting up a stark contrast in philosophical approach to the role. The Superintendent of Public Instruction race saw an upset, with San Diego school board president Richard Barrera, backed by major teachers’ and charter school associations, outperforming veteran Democratic legislators to face Republican Sonja Shaw.
The Lieutenant Governor’s race, while largely ceremonial, features a tight Democratic contest with State Treasurer Fiona Ma leading, followed by Congressman Raul Ruiz and Newsom cabinet member Josh Fryday. For State Controller, incumbent Democrat Malia M. Cohen will defend her seat against Republican Herb W. Morgan. Perhaps most critically, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who oversaw the implementation of universal vote-by-mail, will face Republican Donald P. Wagner, a proponent of voter ID requirements.
The Treasurer’s race features Democrat Eleni Kounalakis leading against Republican Jennifer Hawks. For the pivotal role of Insurance Commissioner, tasked with managing a market in crisis due to wildfire risk, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim leads a crowded field. Finally, elections for four districts of the tax-setting Board of Equalization show mixed results, with both Democrats and Republicans leading in different regions.
The Context: More Than Just Names on a Ballot
The “top-two” primary system, itself a product of California’s electoral reforms, is designed to encourage moderation and break partisan gridlock. The results, however, often simply reflect the state’s deep-blue political landscape, frequently pitting two Democrats against each other in the general election. Yet, the 2024 cycle reveals fractures and unexpected dynamics, particularly in the down-ballot races where institutional endorsements were rejected (as in the Superintendent race) and where the practical management of existential crises like climate change and housing affordability will be directly influenced.
The individuals advancing represent a wide spectrum of experience: longtime legislators, local officials, cabinet members, and political newcomers. Their campaigns have been fueled by diverse coalitions, from major unions and tribes to grassroots activists. The stage is now set for a months-long debate on the direction of the world’s fifth-largest economy, a debate that will hinge on fundamental questions of governance, liberty, and the role of the state.
Opinion: A Vigorous Process in Need of Vigilant Defenders
The primary process, as witnessed in California, is a testament to the machinery of representative democracy. It is messy, expensive, and often predictable, but it remains a peaceful mechanism for transferring power based on the collective will. The very fact that a retired businesswoman can challenge a State Treasurer, or a school bus driver can run for Controller on the Peace and Freedom ticket, speaks to an accessible, if imperfect, system. This openness is a core democratic value that must be celebrated and protected.
However, the mere functioning of an election is not the end goal of a free society; it is the starting point. The true test lies in what these elections signify for the health of our republic. The candidacy of Secretary of State Shirley Weber is of paramount importance. As the chief elections officer, her work to expand access through vote-by-mail is a direct reinforcement of the fundamental liberty to participate in self-government. Her opponent’s focus on voter ID laws touches on a national debate that, while often couched in terms of “election integrity,” must be carefully weighed against the imperative to not disenfranchise a single eligible voter. Any policy that makes voting harder without overwhelming, evidence-based justification is an affront to the democratic principle. Weber’s defense of accessible elections is a defense of democracy itself.
Similarly, the race for Attorney General presents a profound choice about the rule of law. The office is not a partisan weapon, nor is it a rubber stamp. Rob Bonta’s record of challenging federal overreach demonstrates the importance of state attorneys general as checks on power—a role that must be applied consistently, regardless of which party holds the White House. The next Attorney General must be a staunch, non-partisan defender of the Constitution and the rights it enumerates, from the First Amendment to the Fourteenth. The office must pursue justice without fear or favor, protecting the rights of all Californians against encroachment from any quarter.
The down-ballot races, often overlooked, are where governance truly touches people’s lives. The Insurance Commissioner will grapple with a market failure that threatens the property and financial security of millions. The Superintendent of Public Instruction will shape the minds of the next generation. The Board of Equalization directly influences the tax burden on individuals and businesses. These offices require competence, integrity, and a steadfast commitment to the public good over special interests or ideological purity.
The Stakes: California as a Microcosm
California’s election is a microcosm of the American experiment. It showcases the vibrant, pluralistic competition of ideas inherent in a free society. Yet, it also reflects the deep ideological divisions and the ever-present risk that institutions—from the election system to the offices of regulatory power—could be weakened from within by those who seek to wield them for narrow ends.
As a think tank dedicated to democracy, freedom, and the rule of law, we view this primary not as a conclusion, but as a call to action. The candidates who have advanced must now be subjected to intense scrutiny. Voters must demand answers: Will you uphold the Constitution impartially? Will you protect the integrity and the accessibility of our elections? Will you manage the public’s resources with transparency and accountability? Will you use the power of the state to enlarge liberty, not restrict it?
The November election is the voters’ “última palabra”—their final word. That word must be informed, principled, and fierce in its defense of the democratic institutions that allow such a word to be spoken at all. The peaceful adjudication of political conflict through ballots, not bullets, is our republic’s greatest achievement. Let California’s forthcoming campaign be a model of robust, substantive debate that honors that achievement and strengthens the foundations of self-government for all who call this state, and this nation, home. The soul of our state—and a beacon for the nation—hangs in the balance.