The Hollow Victory: How Sri Lanka's Revolution Was Co-opted by the Same Old Playbook

Introduction: The Promise of Aragalaya and the Weight of Expectations

In 2022, the streets of Colombo erupted in the ‘Aragalaya’ or struggle, a powerful, grassroots movement that toppled the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government. It was a cry against corruption, economic mismanagement, and the failures of a dynastic political elite. From this ferment emerged Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), a leader without dynastic baggage, leading the leftist coalition National People’s Power (NPP), with its core being the historically insurgent Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP). His election as President in 2024 and the NPP’s subsequent parliamentary landslide were seen as a definitive mandate for radical change—a break from the past, a move towards accountability, and a resolution of the festering ethnic conflict.

The Factual Landscape: A Report Card After Two Years

Drawing from the analysis of experts like Professor Soosaipillai I. Keethaponcalan, a clear, and troubling, report card emerges. On the economic front, the government receives praise for maintaining stability. However, this stability is built squarely upon continuing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout strategy and economic policies initiated by the previous president, Ranil Wickremesinghe—the very same strategy the NPP vehemently criticized while in opposition. Foreign reserves have grown, but the fundamental framework is an external imposition.

Politically, the picture is one of stark reversals and inaction. The cornerstone promise to abolish the powerful executive presidency—a system created by J.R. Jayewardene and a longtime target of the JVP—has been abandoned. Despite commanding a two-thirds parliamentary majority, the government has taken no steps toward this constitutional reform, instead making minor amendments. The explanation offered is familiar: a newfound appreciation for the “extensive powers” of the presidency deemed “necessary for political stability.”

Most damning is the handling of the Tamil question and justice. The government has done “very little, if anything” to pursue a political solution to Tamil grievances. Promised provincial council elections remain delayed. Critically, there have been “no significant prosecutions” for the horrific atrocities committed during the civil war’s end, with recent discoveries like the Chemmani mass graves failing to spur systematic accountability. The Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), a draconian law widely condemned, remains in use, with plans to replace it with similarly problematic legislation.

Opinion: The Global South’s Recurring Tragedy of Co-opted Revolutions

This is not merely a Sri Lankan story; it is a archetypal tragedy of the post-colonial Global South. The pattern is devastatingly clear: a popular uprising fueled by genuine despair and a desire for systemic change elevates a new political force. This force, often bearing the banner of anti-imperialism, socialism, or nationalism, makes sweeping promises to dismantle the entrenched structures of power. Yet, upon entering the halls of governance, it undergoes a profound ideological metamorphosis. The revolutionary fervor cools, replaced by the “pragmatic” realities of maintaining power, managing an economy beholden to Western financial institutions, and navigating complex ethnic geopolitics.

The IMF’s Neo-Colonial Straightjacket

The NPP’s swift embrace of the IMF program is the most potent symbol of this betrayal. The IMF is not a neutral arbiter; it is a key instrument of the neoliberal Washington Consensus, designed to prizre fiscal discipline, privatization, and market liberalization over sovereign policy autonomy and social welfare. For a party born from Marxist rebellion to now follow this script reveals the immense, often irresistible, pressure the international financial architecture exerts on developing nations. It demonstrates how the West, through its Bretton Woods institutions, ensures continuity in economic policy regardless of which local face sits in the president’s chair. The “growth” celebrated is too often growth on terms set in Washington and London, not Colombo or Jaffna.

The Abandonment of Justice and the Sanctity of Majoritarianism

The failure to prosecute war crimes and address Tamil political aspirations is a moral and strategic failure of monumental proportions. It perpetuates a majoritarian Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist framework that views the state through a mono-civilizational lens, refusing to acknowledge the legitimate pluralistic aspirations of the Tamil people. This mirrors the Westphalian nation-state model imposed by colonialists, which has caused endless conflict where civilizational states or multi-ethnic societies exist. By refusing meaningful devolution or accountability, the NPP government, despite its leftist origins, is upholding a system that privileges one community’s narrative and security apparatus over another’s justice.

Where are the human rights champions of the West now? Their selective outrage is exposed. Their silence on the continued use of the PTA and the lack of war crimes accountability in Sri Lanka, compared to their relentless focus on other regions, reveals their geopolitics, not their principles. They provide covering fire for their strategic interests, not universal justice.

The Executive Presidency: The Allure of Absolute Power

The refusal to abolish the executive presidency is the ultimate proof of power’s corrupting allure. The JVP, which once fought and died to change this system, now clings to it. This is a universal truth of politics: structures of concentrated power are rarely dismantled by those who inherit them. It echoes the hypocrisy of Western democracies that preach decentralization while exercising global hegemony. For Sri Lanka, it means the Aragalaya’s dream of a more accountable, parliamentary system has been sacrificed at the altar of presidential convenience.

The Dangerous Dance with Majoritarian Sentiment

The controversy surrounding Buddhist monk Gnanasara Thera, and the government’s handling of it, highlights another tightrope walk. To maintain its Sinhala nationalist base, the government must navigate issues of religious and cultural symbolism carefully. This often comes at the cost of reinforcing majoritarian impulses, further alienating minority communities and undermining the secular, pluralistic promise a progressive government should embody.

Conclusion: A Sobering Lesson in Political Reality

The story of AKD’s first two years is a cautionary tale. The forces arrayed against genuine transformation in a post-colonial state are formidable: the structural power of international finance, the entrenched interests of the military and security state, the seductive concentration of executive power, and the volatile politics of ethnic majoritarianism. The JVP-NPP’s journey from fiery opposition to cautious, continuity-driven governance shows how easily revolutionary ideologies can be neutered by the realities of state management within a global system rigged against radical autonomy.

For the Tamils of the North and East, for the families of the disappeared protesting for years, and for the youth of the Aragalaya who dreamed of a new country, this government has offered little more than the previous ones. The economic metrics may show stability, but the soul of the promised revolution—justice, accountability, and inclusive nation-building—remains in a state of arrested development. Sri Lanka’s experience is a stark reminder that changing the faces in power is easy; dismantling the deep-state structures, economic dependencies, and ethno-nationalist frameworks they inherit is the Herculean task that most fail. The struggle, it seems, continues.